Technological trends rather than personalities behind the societal divide
We have accepted the idea that COVID accelerated many trends. They are like little streams that feed in the undercurrent that fuels public debate today. But this undercurrent is not partisan. It is objective.
Like many Americans, I am searching for such objective factors that go beyond our political differences, and that brought us to this level of division in our society. I hope that once they are recognized, fewer will be blaming the flagbearers (such as Trump or AOC), and instead more people will work on the policies to address such factors and move forward together.
To me, this objective undercurrent is a vivid manifestation of the mechanism that has always driven human history. These are conflicts in society due to breakthroughs in technology (Karl Marx called it the clash between productive forces and production relations.) Individual new technologies improve productivity and standard of living, but once the number of new technologies increases, the entire economy rebalances to take them into account, causing society to experience growing pains. When we celebrate progress, we often ignore these pains. We take good things and leave their consequences for others to fix. Unfortunately, the new balance of interests rarely comes without some infighting.
Look around. We are probably in the middle stage of the 4th industrial revolution that began with the iPhone’s invention. Marx lived in somewhat similar times during the Second Industrial Revolution, which was triggered by the introduction of the Bessemer method of steel casting. He observed how the adoption of new technologies alienated people from their usual workplaces.
So what are some of the objective elements introduced by new technologies that contribute to the current heat of public discourse? Let us focus on three factors: the reduction of efforts to satisfy material needs; the ability to target information to the individual consumer level; and the ability to influence policy.
The digital delivery of products and services (e.g. Amazon) freed up a lot of time for many demographics. The benefits enabled Generation Y to direct their consumer preference to new experiences, to pay more attention to emotions, and to change the focus of their interests rapidly.
Secondly, with the help of new technology (namely, big data and AI), the media can identify individual consumers’ preferences. When something is tuned to our emotions, we consume more of it. Massive consumption of audience-adjusted information seems to have significantly contributed to developing one of the worst propensities of people — the desire to judge, rather than understand, each other. We can blame media, but most of those who own it and work there are not necessarily reflecting their own views. Their business models benefit from better serving their target audiences, rather than specifically promulgating ‘socialism’ or ‘inequity’.
In the political arena, new tech also made it possible for each person’s opinion to be taken into account. They help enable a better representation of niche political views. Populists of all kinds did not have such access to voters before, and voters did not have such access and influence over politicians as they do now.
When you think of the rate of behavioral changes caused by accelerating new technology, you may easier understand the increased speed of generational changes. Broad generational differences also add to niche-targeted policies, creating a feeling of further division. We are used to approximately a twenty-year life span of a generation like in X, Y, and Z. Now, it feels that the characteristics of generations change after releases of new iPhone models.
New technologies are also a substantial driver of the increasing wealth gap. The same happened in the Second Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, during which we also witnessed an immense enrichment of a relatively small group (the famous robber barons, including the Vanderbilts and Rockefellers) while the majority didn’t benefit much. As a general trend, those few who are early adopters of new technology benefit disproportionately. This dynamic was analyzed in Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.
Unless we focus on the equal distribution of the benefits of technology and on the education required to be successful in the world of new technologies, wealth inequality will keep gaining momentum. There is no good reason why politicians don’t do much to cure this problem (only political outsider Andrew Yang raised this issue during the 2020 presidential election.)
The reversal of globalization (e.g. factories and manufacturing jobs coming back to America) can also be attributed to new technologies: nowadays, it is easier and cheaper to produce locally. The globalization trends of the 1990s started because it was profitable to relocate production to markets with cheap workforces. But 30 years later, new technologies and the increased price of foreign workforces created an opportunity to start producing products closer to the consumer, and manufacturing is starting to come back to America.
The tough negotiations following the reversal of the trend are also objective. One who benefits from them objectively looks not as friendly as before although the style may differ.
Wouldn’t it be nice if more people would identify such objective trends and find bipartisan ways for society to move forward to help in these emotionally intense transition times?
